play Live Sign upShow navigation menu.css-15ru6p1{font-size:inherit;font-weight:normal;}Navigation menuNewsShow more news sectionsAfricaAsiaUS & CanadaLatin AmericaEuropeAsia PacificMiddle EastExplainedOpinionSportVideoMoreShow more sectionsFeaturesEconomyHuman RightsClimate CrisisInvestigationsInteractivesIn PicturesScience & TechnologyPodcastsTravelplay Live Click here to searchsearchSign upNavigation menucaret-leftIsrael attacks LebanonWho was Haytham Ali Tabatabai?Why is Israel still in southern Lebanon?Has Hezbollah been weakened?Voices from southern LebanonA war to shape Lebanon’s futurecaret-rightFeatures|ConflictIn Lebanon, Israel is using occupation as negotiating tool, say analystsIsrael is using military occupation of southern Lebanon and displacement crisis to dictate ceasefire terms, say experts. Listen to this article | 6 minsinfoSmoke rises following Israeli air raids in Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, March 3, 2026 [Hussein Malla/AP Photo]By Mohammad MansourPublished On 16 Mar 202616 Mar 2026Click here to share on social mediashare2Share googleAdd Al Jazeera on GoogleinfoAbove the smouldering skyline of Beirut’s southern Dahiyeh suburb, new forced evacuation orders from the Israeli military echo through rapidly emptying neighbourhoods. The Israeli warnings, accompanied by bombings of Beirut and other parts of southern Lebanon, contrast starkly with a French proposal for a diplomatic intervention aimed at pausing the latest Israeli war on its northern neighbour.
But increasingly, say some analysts, that apparent dissonance between Israel’s actions and the prospect of talks to stop the fighting is in fact a reflection of a new ground reality that Israel is creating: occupying Lebanese territory to give itself greater leverage in any negotiations. Already, the human cost of Israel’s war is staggering. Lebanon has faced a sweeping Israeli offensive since March 2, which has killed about 850 people, including 107 children and 66 women, according to the Ministry of Public Health.
More than one million people have been displaced within the country, forced into overcrowded shelters. The escalation followed Hezbollah’s targeting of Israeli military sites in response to a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, shattering whatever remained of the collapsed November 2024 ceasefire. Amid this humanitarian catastrophe, French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed hosting direct talks between Lebanon and Israel in Paris, warning that “everything must be done to prevent Lebanon [from] descending into chaos”.
To support the diplomatic push, Paris announced the delivery of 60 tonnes of humanitarian aid alongside armoured personnel carriers for the Lebanese forces. However, analysts say, the Israeli military, rather than French diplomacy, is setting the agenda for the proposed talks. Israel, according to political analysts, will look to leverage its military presence to impose a radically altered security architecture, using its occupation of southern villages to dictate new facts on the ground.
According to Ziad Majed, a political science professor at the American University of Paris, the undeclared conditions of the current diplomatic push involve forcing the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah under the strict supervision of the United States and France. By holding Lebanese territory, Israel is forcing Lebanon to negotiate over its sovereignty, with a question mark over whether Israeli troops will eventually withdraw or if currently occupied areas will be permanently transformed into an unpopulated buffer zone. This strategy is currently unfolding on the battlefield.
Israel has amassed six military divisions — roughly 100,000 soldiers — along its northern border. Military experts point to the strategic southern Lebanese town of Khiam as the focal point of Israel’s impending ground push. Bahaa Hallal, a retired Lebanese brigadier-general, told Al Jazeera Arabic that Khiam serves as a “geographical key” that oversees the Marjayoun plain and the Hasbani Valley leading to the Litani River.
